BTC should be $18,000 due to stock correlation: analyst

18 Jun 2020

Increasing correlation to the U.S. equities benchmark, the S&P 500, means that Bitcoin should currently be $18,000 unless the market falls, says a leading analyst.

PlanB, the creator of stock-to-flow and stock-to-flow cross-asset, flagged-up in several tweets on Wednesday, a correlation between the world’s largest cryptocurrency and the stock market.

According to PlanB, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 are both correlated and co-integrated, with the pair’s R squared value at 95%.

“Such a large correlation suggests that Bitcoin, as a dependent variable, is extremely susceptible to movements on the S&P 500,” reported Coin Telegraph on Thursday.

The analyst’s study found that the S&P 500’s current level would suggest a Bitcoin price of $18,000. 

“This is consistent with S2FX model: $288K BTC at S2F56 -> it implies $4300 S&P,” another part of the tweet continues.

However, some experts believe that Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market remains uncorrelated.

Luke Martin, a high-profile crypto analyst, wrote about this in a recent tweet thread, explaining that its macro is still pretty minimal.

He further added that the reason why this trend has shifted slightly during recent stock market selloffs is because most assets decline during times of crisis or panic, such as we witnessed during the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic.

“The peak was around March 12th as all ‘risky’ assets sold off together. (likely reason: In a crisis everything sells off together as the driving force behind that decision is dominated by fear),” he tweeted.

In short, there’s certainly been an increased level of correlation between Bitcoin and stock markets in recent months – how much though, remains arguable.